“We’re looking at an 85% chance or better or a soft landing,” said Jennifer Harris, who recently served as a special assistant to Biden as well as a senior director on the National Economic Council and the National Security Council. “But as with everything, there are risks, like the lagging effects from the Fed’s recent hikes – the full shape of which we do not yet know.”

Those hikes are still wending their way through the economy. And what’s at risk are the many Americans who’ve entered the labor market for the first time – minorities, as well as younger and older workers. Harris worries about a “last in-first out” dynamic, putting these employees out of work first if unemployment rises and a recession takes hold. “The stakes are high around getting a soft landing right,” she told The Messenger.

The new restrictions, which have been telegraphed by administration officials for most of the year, represent a new chapter in U.S. -China relations. But officials are willing to risk short or medium-term diplomatic friction with Beijing to establish a long-term goal: U.S. capital and knowledge cannot help China’s military leapfrog the U.S.

“If the administration wasn’t going to do this, Congress would have,” Jennifer Harris, who served as the National Security Council’s senior director for international economics for Biden’s first two years, told Axios. “They have continually ratcheted down to land surgically on the smallest yard in need of protecting,” she said. “That’s testament to how focused this team is on doing what’s needed while ensuring we aren’t unnecessarily escalating with China.”